Kazakhstan U19 1–1 Cyprus U19: Result & Stats

Kazakhstan U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cyprus U19

M. Birkurmanov 4'

G. Tziortzis 59'

11/18/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kazakhstan U1945%

×Draw25%

Cyprus U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kazakhstan U19Expected goals in this matchCyprus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.29

Kazakhstan U19

1.60

Cyprus U19

1.29

Kazakhstan U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

1.29

creates per match

0.58

2.00

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Kazakhstan U19

1.29

Cyprus U19

0.58

allows per match

Kazakhstan U19

2.00

Cyprus U19

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kazakhstan U19+0.00on par

Cyprus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazakhstan U19 ↓

Cyprus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kazakhstan U19 or draw

69%

Kazakhstan U19 or Cyprus U19

75%

Draw or Cyprus U19

55%

Winning margin

Kazakhstan U19 wins by 2+

23%

Cyprus U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kazakhstan U19 1+ goals

80%

Kazakhstan U19 2+ goals

47%

Kazakhstan U19 3+ goals

22%

Cyprus U19 1+ goals

72%

Cyprus U19 2+ goals

37%

Cyprus U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kazakhstan U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Cyprus U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazakhstan U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Cyprus U19 away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazakhstan U19 attack 1.29 + Cyprus U19 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.60

Cyprus U19 attack 0.58 + Kazakhstan U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kazakhstan U19 scores more

45%

level

25%

Cyprus U19 scores more

31%

Kazakhstan U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kazakhstan U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

M. Birkurmanov↳ A. Tuyakbaev

45'

A. Kalikulov

46'

A. Nurgali← I. Bekbolat

46'

G. Tziortzis← G. Psilogenis

46'

C. Evangelou← C. Loukaidis

46'

P. Charalampous← P. I. Ioannou

47'

52'

52'

52'

56'

59'

60'

60'

62'

A. Christoforou← A. Nikolaou

65'

A. Toleukhan← M. Birkurmanov

67'

G. Skafi

70'

M. Petousis

71'

K. Makhametzhan← Y. Petrik

71'

K. Panagi← C. Michalas

72'

C. Evangelou

78'

A. Toleukhan

85'

A. Zhexenbek← A. Tuyakbaev

Kazakhstan

Cyprus

12

4

13

2

20

6

▼

Psilogeni

3

▼

Michalas

19

▼

Nikolaou

9

▼

Loukaidis

10

Theodosio

15

▼

Ioannou

1

Kalmurza

19

▼

4

16

2

8

7

6

11

A

▼

Tuyakbaev

17

▼

Bekbolat

9

⚽

▼

Birkurman

Manager: A. Kuznetsov

46'▲A. Nurgali←▼I. Bekbolat

65'▲A. Toleukhan←▼M. Birkurmanov

71'▲K. Makhametzhan←▼Y. Petrik

85'▲A. Zhexenbek←▼A. Tuyakbaev

Kazakhstan U19 substitutes

12Reimov3Sagyn5Torebek10Toleukhan13Zhexenbek14Nurgali15Bakitzhanov18Nazarov20Makhametzhan

Manager: V. Koulountis

46'▲G. Tziortzis←▼G. Psilogenis

46'▲C. Evangelou←▼C. Loukaidis

46'▲P. Charalampous←▼P. I. Ioannou

62'▲A. Christoforou←▼A. Nikolaou

71'▲K. Panagi←▼C. Michalas

Cyprus U19 substitutes

1Panagi5Ioannou7Efstathiou8Tziortzis11Panagi14Vattis16Christoforou17Evangelou18Charalampous