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Kazakhstan U17 vs Kosovo U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Kazakhstan U17
Kazakhstan U17
FT
4 – 4
HT: 2 – 0
Kosovo U17
Kosovo U17
10/15/2024UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Round 1 - 3SL16 Football Campus - Terrain 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kazakhstan U1754%
×Draw21%
Kosovo U1726%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kazakhstan U17
2.21
Kosovo U17
1.48

Kazakhstan U17 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Kazakhstan U17
2.00
Kosovo U17
1.21

allows per match

Kazakhstan U17
1.75
Kosovo U17
2.43

finishing

Kazakhstan U17+0.00on par
Kosovo U17+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazakhstan U17 ↓

Kosovo U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kazakhstan U17 or draw
74%
Kazakhstan U17 or Kosovo U17
79%
Draw or Kosovo U17
46%

Winning margin

Kazakhstan U17 wins by 2+
33%
Kosovo U17 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kazakhstan U17 1+ goals
89%
Kazakhstan U17 2+ goals
65%
Kazakhstan U17 3+ goals
38%
Kosovo U17 1+ goals
77%
Kosovo U17 2+ goals
43%
Kosovo U17 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kazakhstan U17 (draw refunded)
68%
Kosovo U17 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazakhstan U17 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Kosovo U17 away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazakhstan U17 attack 2.00 + Kosovo U17 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.21

Kosovo U17 attack 1.21 + Kazakhstan U17 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kazakhstan U17 scores more
54%
level
21%
Kosovo U17 scores more
26%

Kazakhstan U17 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kazakhstan U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Kazakhstan U17 4–4 Kosovo U17

Kazakhstan U17 and Kosovo U17 drew 4-4 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 15, 2024.

The match was played at SL16 Football Campus - Terrain 1 in Angleur.