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Kayserispor vs Yomraspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kayserispor
Kayserispor
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Yomraspor
Yomraspor
11/4/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundKadir Has Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kayserispor66%
×Draw20%
Yomraspor14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kayserispor
2.09
Yomraspor
0.86

Kayserispor creates 143% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kayserispor
2.80
Yomraspor
1.00

allows per match

Kayserispor
0.73
Yomraspor
1.38

finishing

Kayserispor+0.00on par
Yomraspor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kayserispor ↓

Yomraspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kayserispor or draw
86%
Kayserispor or Yomraspor
80%
Draw or Yomraspor
34%

Winning margin

Kayserispor wins by 2+
41%
Yomraspor wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kayserispor 1+ goals
88%
Kayserispor 2+ goals
62%
Kayserispor 3+ goals
34%
Yomraspor 1+ goals
58%
Yomraspor 2+ goals
21%
Yomraspor 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kayserispor (draw refunded)
82%
Yomraspor (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kayserispor at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Yomraspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kayserispor attack 2.80 + Yomraspor defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.09

Yomraspor attack 1.00 + Kayserispor defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Kayserispor scores more
66%
level
20%
Yomraspor scores more
14%

Kayserispor at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kayserispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Kayserispor 5–0 Yomraspor

Kayserispor beat Yomraspor 5-0 in Türkiye Kupası on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı in Kayseri.