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Kayserispor vs Vanspor FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kayserispor
Kayserispor
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK
H. Erkip 69'
E. Özbek 65'
Y. Çeltik 19'
B. Gezek 14'
12/6/2023Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundRHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kayserispor83%
×Draw11%
Vanspor FK5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kayserispor
2.97
Vanspor FK
0.65

Kayserispor creates 357% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kayserispor
2.80
Vanspor FK
0.57

allows per match

Kayserispor
0.73
Vanspor FK
3.14

finishing

Kayserispor+0.00on par
Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kayserispor ↓

Vanspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kayserispor or draw
95%
Kayserispor or Vanspor FK
89%
Draw or Vanspor FK
17%

Winning margin

Kayserispor wins by 2+
64%
Vanspor FK wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Kayserispor 1+ goals
95%
Kayserispor 2+ goals
79%
Kayserispor 3+ goals
56%
Vanspor FK 1+ goals
48%
Vanspor FK 2+ goals
14%
Vanspor FK 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kayserispor (draw refunded)
94%
Vanspor FK (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kayserispor at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Vanspor FK away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kayserispor attack 2.80 + Vanspor FK defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.97

Vanspor FK attack 0.57 + Kayserispor defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Kayserispor scores more
83%
level
11%
Vanspor FK scores more
5%

Kayserispor at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Kayserispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
B. Gezek
19'
Y. Çeltik
60'
M. Davarcıoğlu← O. Güler
60'
A. Akyüz← F. Sakı
63'
H. Erkip← Carlos Mané
63'
J. Jeanvier← A. Kocaman
65'
E. Özbek
69'
H. Erkip
70'
H. Özkurt← A. Akbulut
70'
Ö. Bilici← A. Ülük
72'
E. Arıkan← H. Kaldırım
72'
T. Sarıarslan← S. Bahoken
75'
B. Eskin← A. Malatyalı
78'
M. Beler← E. Kiyağ

Statistics

KayserisporVanspor
Overview
2Corners2

Match Recap: Kayserispor vs Vanspor FK

Kayserispor beat Vanspor FK 4-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 6, 2023.

Goals: B. Gezek (14'), Y. Çeltik (19'), E. Özbek (65'), H. Erkip (69').

The match was played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu in Kayseri.