Kayserispor 4–2 Trabzonspor: Result & Stats

Kayserispor

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Trabzonspor

E. Başsan 90+6', 48'

M. Thiam 90+1' (pen)

M. Hosseini 59'

A. Bakasetas 82'

A. Nwakaeme 3' (pen)

5/10/2022

Türkiye Kupası · Semi-finalsKadir Has Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kayserispor50%

×Draw21%

Trabzonspor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KayserisporExpected goals in this matchTrabzonspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.68

Kayserispor

2.21

Trabzonspor

1.68

Kayserispor creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

2.80

creates per match

2.63

0.73

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Kayserispor

2.80

Trabzonspor

2.63

allows per match

Kayserispor

0.73

Trabzonspor

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kayserispor+0.00on par

Trabzonspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kayserispor ↓

Trabzonspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Kayserispor or draw

70%

Kayserispor or Trabzonspor

79%

Draw or Trabzonspor

50%

Winning margin

Kayserispor wins by 2+

30%

Trabzonspor wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kayserispor 1+ goals

89%

Kayserispor 2+ goals

65%

Kayserispor 3+ goals

38%

Trabzonspor 1+ goals

81%

Trabzonspor 2+ goals

50%

Trabzonspor 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Kayserispor (draw refunded)

63%

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kayserispor at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Trabzonspor away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kayserispor attack 2.80 + Trabzonspor defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.21

Trabzonspor attack 2.63 + Kayserispor defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kayserispor scores more

50%

level

21%

Trabzonspor scores more

30%

Kayserispor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kayserispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

A. NwakaemePenalty

41'

Olivier Kemen

46'

E. Başsan← İ. Akdağ

46'

Y. Erdoğan← A. Nwakaeme

48'

E. Başsan

59'

M. Hosseini

70'

Carlos Mané← M. Pektemek

70'

Djaniny← T. Puchacz

82'

A. Bakasetas

84'

S. Asan← A. Kaplan

87'

A. Parmak← R. Civelek

90+7'

Emrah Başsan

90+1'

M. ThiamPenalty

90+6'

E. Başsan

Possession

Shots

Statistics

KayserisporTrabzonspor

Overview

55%Possession45%

20Total Shots9

10Corners1

10Fouls8

Shots

20Total Shots9

11On Target5

6Off Target2

3Blocked2

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0