Kayserispor 3–2 Manisa F.K.: Result & Stats

Kayserispor

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Manisa F.K.

12/5/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundKadir Has Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kayserispor73%

×Draw15%

Manisa F.K.12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KayserisporExpected goals in this matchManisa F.K.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.90

1.11

Kayserispor

2.90

Manisa F.K.

1.11

Kayserispor creates 161% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

2.80

creates per match

1.50

0.73

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Kayserispor

2.80

Manisa F.K.

1.50

allows per match

Kayserispor

0.73

Manisa F.K.

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kayserispor+0.00on par

Manisa F.K.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kayserispor ↓

Manisa F.K. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Kayserispor or draw

88%

Kayserispor or Manisa F.K.

85%

Draw or Manisa F.K.

27%

Winning margin

Kayserispor wins by 2+

53%

Manisa F.K. wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Kayserispor 1+ goals

94%

Kayserispor 2+ goals

78%

Kayserispor 3+ goals

54%

Manisa F.K. 1+ goals

67%

Manisa F.K. 2+ goals

30%

Manisa F.K. 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kayserispor (draw refunded)

86%

Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kayserispor at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Manisa F.K. away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kayserispor attack 2.80 + Manisa F.K. defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.90

Manisa F.K. attack 1.50 + Kayserispor defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Kayserispor scores more

73%

level

15%

Manisa F.K. scores more

12%

Kayserispor at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Kayserispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff