Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kayserispor vs Iğdır FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kayserispor
Kayserispor
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK
11/2/2023Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundRHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kayserispor65%
×Draw20%
Iğdır FK16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kayserispor
2.15
Iğdır FK
0.95

Kayserispor creates 126% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kayserispor
2.80
Iğdır FK
1.17

allows per match

Kayserispor
0.73
Iğdır FK
1.50

finishing

Kayserispor+0.00on par
Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kayserispor ↓

Iğdır FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kayserispor or draw
84%
Kayserispor or Iğdır FK
80%
Draw or Iğdır FK
35%

Winning margin

Kayserispor wins by 2+
41%
Iğdır FK wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kayserispor 1+ goals
88%
Kayserispor 2+ goals
63%
Kayserispor 3+ goals
36%
Iğdır FK 1+ goals
61%
Iğdır FK 2+ goals
25%
Iğdır FK 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kayserispor (draw refunded)
80%
Iğdır FK (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kayserispor at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Iğdır FK away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kayserispor attack 2.80 + Iğdır FK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.15

Iğdır FK attack 1.17 + Kayserispor defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kayserispor scores more
65%
level
20%
Iğdır FK scores more
16%

Kayserispor at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kayserispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kayserispor vs Iğdır FK

Kayserispor and Iğdır FK drew 0-0 in Türkiye Kupası on November 2, 2023.

The match was played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu in Kayseri.