Kayserispor 1–1 Göztepe: Result & Stats

Kayserispor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Göztepe

M. Cardoso 60'

E. Bekiroglu 85'

9/14/2025

League #203 · Round 5Kadir Has Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Kayserispor35%

×Draw27%

Göztepe38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KayserisporExpected goals in this matchGöztepe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.31

Kayserispor

1.24

Göztepe

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

1.15

creates per match

1.34

1.28

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Kayserispor

1.15

Göztepe

1.34

allows per match

Kayserispor

1.28

Göztepe

1.33

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

Kayserispor-0.15scores less

Göztepe-0.42scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kayserispor ↓

Göztepe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kayserispor or draw

62%

Kayserispor or Göztepe

73%

Draw or Göztepe

65%

Winning margin

Kayserispor wins by 2+

15%

Göztepe wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kayserispor 1+ goals

71%

Kayserispor 2+ goals

35%

Kayserispor 3+ goals

13%

Göztepe 1+ goals

73%

Göztepe 2+ goals

38%

Göztepe 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kayserispor (draw refunded)

48%

Göztepe (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kayserispor at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.28 · 15 matches

Göztepe away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kayserispor attack 1.15 + Göztepe defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Göztepe attack 1.34 + Kayserispor defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kayserispor scores more

35%

level

27%

Göztepe scores more

38%

Göztepe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Cardoso

Kayserispor · M

7.9

Match Events

13'

Anthony Junior Dennis

43'

A. Opoku← C. Mane

45+1'

Dorukhan Toköz

60'

M. Cardoso↳ L. Benes

63'

A. Burak← G. Jung

65'

I. Koybasi← A. Cherni

65'

Ruan Teixeira← A. Kurtulan

66'

Allan Godoi← T. Altikardes

76'

Aaron Opoku

79'

N. Miroshi← A. Dennis

79'

E. Bekiroglu← J. Olaitan

80'

80'

84'

85'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KayserisporGöztepe

Overview

53%Possession47%

8Total Shots13

0.62Expected Goals (xG)0.48

3Corners7

12Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots13

6On Target7

2Off Target4

0Blocked2

4Inside Box5

4Outside Box8

Passing

53%Possession47%

328Total Passes301

241Accurate Passes221

73%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

-0.41Goals Prevented-0.41

Discipline

12Fouls17

4Yellow Cards1

3Offsides5

League #203: Kayserispor 1–1 Göztepe

Kayserispor and Göztepe drew 1-1 in League #203 on September 14, 2025.

Goals: M. Cardoso (60'), E. Bekiroglu (85').

Kayserispor controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 13.

The match was played at Kadir Has Stadium in Kayseri.

Kayserispor vs Göztepe — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #203: Kayserispor 1–1 Göztepe