Kayserispor 1–0 Göztepe: Result & Stats

Kayserispor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Göztepe

M. Mešanović 70'

3/2/2020

League #203 · Round 24Kadir Has Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Kayserispor37%

×Draw26%

Göztepe37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KayserisporExpected goals in this matchGöztepe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.32

Kayserispor

1.33

Göztepe

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

1.24

creates per match

1.35

1.29

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Kayserispor

1.24

Göztepe

1.35

allows per match

Kayserispor

1.29

Göztepe

1.42

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.49scores less than expected

finishing

Kayserispor-0.24scores less

Göztepe-0.49scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kayserispor ↓

Göztepe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kayserispor or draw

63%

Kayserispor or Göztepe

74%

Draw or Göztepe

63%

Winning margin

Kayserispor wins by 2+

17%

Göztepe wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kayserispor 1+ goals

74%

Kayserispor 2+ goals

38%

Kayserispor 3+ goals

15%

Göztepe 1+ goals

73%

Göztepe 2+ goals

38%

Göztepe 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kayserispor (draw refunded)

50%

Göztepe (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kayserispor at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 16 matches

Göztepe away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.42 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kayserispor attack 1.24 + Göztepe defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Göztepe attack 1.35 + Kayserispor defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kayserispor scores more

37%

level

26%

Göztepe scores more

37%

Kayserispor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kayserispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88

S. Aydoğdu

Göztepe · M

7.8

Match Events

13'

21'

50'

55'

55'

K. Wilczek← C. Jerome

70'

M. Mešanović

77'

Z. Tripić← Castro

79'

M. Šitum← M. Mešanović

82'

Pedro Henrique

83'

B. Rienstra← Pedro Henrique

88'

A. Aktaş← B. Dja Djédjé

89'

Aksel Aktaş

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KayserisporGöztepe

Overview

41%Possession59%

9Total Shots13

0Corners5

17Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots13

3On Target2

5Off Target6

1Blocked5

6Inside Box9

3Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

363Total Passes490

306Accurate Passes427

84%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls13

4Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1