Kayserispor 0–3 Beşiktaş: Result & Stats

Kayserispor

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Beşiktaş

9/30/2024

League #203 · Round 7RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Kayserispor33%

×Draw24%

Beşiktaş43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KayserisporExpected goals in this matchBeşiktaş

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.59

Kayserispor

1.37

Beşiktaş

1.59

Beşiktaş creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

1.36

creates per match

1.54

1.65

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Kayserispor

1.36

Beşiktaş

1.54

allows per match

Kayserispor

1.65

Beşiktaş

1.38

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Kayserispor+0.04on par

Beşiktaş-0.31scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kayserispor ↓

Beşiktaş →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kayserispor or draw

57%

Kayserispor or Beşiktaş

76%

Draw or Beşiktaş

67%

Winning margin

Kayserispor wins by 2+

15%

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Kayserispor 1+ goals

75%

Kayserispor 2+ goals

40%

Kayserispor 3+ goals

16%

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

80%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

47%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Kayserispor (draw refunded)

44%

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kayserispor at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.65 · 5 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kayserispor attack 1.36 + Beşiktaş defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.37

Beşiktaş attack 1.54 + Kayserispor defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kayserispor scores more

33%

level

24%

Beşiktaş scores more

43%

Beşiktaş at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff