Kayserispor 0–0 Artvin Hopaspor: Result & Stats

Kayserispor

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Artvin Hopaspor

10/27/2021

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundKadir Has Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kayserispor81%

×Draw13%

Artvin Hopaspor5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KayserisporExpected goals in this matchArtvin Hopaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

0.49

Kayserispor

2.52

Artvin Hopaspor

0.49

Kayserispor creates 414% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

2.80

creates per match

0.25

0.73

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Kayserispor

2.80

Artvin Hopaspor

0.25

allows per match

Kayserispor

0.73

Artvin Hopaspor

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kayserispor+0.00on par

Artvin Hopaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kayserispor ↓

Artvin Hopaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kayserispor or draw

95%

Kayserispor or Artvin Hopaspor

87%

Draw or Artvin Hopaspor

19%

Winning margin

Kayserispor wins by 2+

59%

Artvin Hopaspor wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Kayserispor 1+ goals

92%

Kayserispor 2+ goals

71%

Kayserispor 3+ goals

45%

Artvin Hopaspor 1+ goals

39%

Artvin Hopaspor 2+ goals

9%

Artvin Hopaspor 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Kayserispor (draw refunded)

94%

Artvin Hopaspor (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kayserispor at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Artvin Hopaspor away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kayserispor attack 2.80 + Artvin Hopaspor defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.52

Artvin Hopaspor attack 0.25 + Kayserispor defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Kayserispor scores more

81%

level

13%

Artvin Hopaspor scores more

5%

Kayserispor at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Kayserispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff