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Kayserispor vs Altay — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kayserispor
Kayserispor
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Altay
Altay
12/19/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundKadir Has Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kayserispor68%
×Draw17%
Altay14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kayserispor
2.50
Altay
1.06

Kayserispor creates 136% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kayserispor
2.80
Altay
1.40

allows per match

Kayserispor
0.73
Altay
2.20

finishing

Kayserispor+0.00on par
Altay+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kayserispor ↓

Altay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kayserispor or draw
86%
Kayserispor or Altay
83%
Draw or Altay
32%

Winning margin

Kayserispor wins by 2+
46%
Altay wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kayserispor 1+ goals
92%
Kayserispor 2+ goals
71%
Kayserispor 3+ goals
45%
Altay 1+ goals
65%
Altay 2+ goals
29%
Altay 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kayserispor (draw refunded)
83%
Altay (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kayserispor at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Altay away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kayserispor attack 2.80 + Altay defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.50

Altay attack 1.40 + Kayserispor defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Kayserispor scores more
68%
level
17%
Altay scores more
14%

Kayserispor at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Kayserispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Kayserispor 4–1 Altay

Kayserispor beat Altay 4-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 19, 2018.

The match was played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı in Kayseri.