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Kayserispor vs 68 Aksaray Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kayserispor
Kayserispor
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
12/30/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundKadir Has Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kayserispor73%
×Draw17%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kayserispor
2.30
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
0.71

Kayserispor creates 224% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

Kayserispor
2.80
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
0.70

allows per match

Kayserispor
0.73
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
1.80

finishing

Kayserispor+0.00on par
68 Aksaray Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kayserispor ↓

68 Aksaray Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kayserispor or draw
90%
Kayserispor or 68 Aksaray Belediyespor
83%
Draw or 68 Aksaray Belediyespor
27%

Winning margin

Kayserispor wins by 2+
49%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kayserispor 1+ goals
90%
Kayserispor 2+ goals
67%
Kayserispor 3+ goals
40%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor 1+ goals
51%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor 2+ goals
16%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kayserispor (draw refunded)
88%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kayserispor at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

68 Aksaray Belediyespor away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kayserispor attack 2.80 + 68 Aksaray Belediyespor defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.30

68 Aksaray Belediyespor attack 0.70 + Kayserispor defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Kayserispor scores more
73%
level
17%
68 Aksaray Belediyespor scores more
10%

Kayserispor at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Kayserispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kayserispor vs 68 Aksaray Belediyespor

Kayserispor beat 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 4-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 30, 2021.

The match was played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı in Kayseri.