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Kayserispor vs 1461 Trabzon FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kayserispor
Kayserispor
Pens
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
1461 Trabzon FK
1461 Trabzon FK
11/26/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundKadir Has Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kayserispor86%
×Draw10%
1461 Trabzon FK4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kayserispor
2.96
1461 Trabzon FK
0.49

Kayserispor creates 504% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kayserispor
2.80
1461 Trabzon FK
0.25

allows per match

Kayserispor
0.73
1461 Trabzon FK
3.13

finishing

Kayserispor+0.00on par
1461 Trabzon FK+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kayserispor ↓

1461 Trabzon FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Kayserispor or draw
96%
Kayserispor or 1461 Trabzon FK
90%
Draw or 1461 Trabzon FK
14%

Winning margin

Kayserispor wins by 2+
67%
1461 Trabzon FK wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Kayserispor 1+ goals
95%
Kayserispor 2+ goals
79%
Kayserispor 3+ goals
55%
1461 Trabzon FK 1+ goals
39%
1461 Trabzon FK 2+ goals
9%
1461 Trabzon FK 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Kayserispor (draw refunded)
96%
1461 Trabzon FK (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kayserispor at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

1461 Trabzon FK away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kayserispor attack 2.80 + 1461 Trabzon FK defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.96

1461 Trabzon FK attack 0.25 + Kayserispor defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Kayserispor scores more
86%
level
10%
1461 Trabzon FK scores more
4%

Kayserispor at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Kayserispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Kayserispor 3–3 1461 Trabzon FK

Kayserispor and 1461 Trabzon FK drew 3-3 in Türkiye Kupası on November 26, 2020.

The match was played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı in Kayseri.