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Kaya vs Sydney — AFC Cup 2018

Kaya
Kaya
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Sydney
Sydney
10/3/2024AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kaya25%
×Draw23%
Sydney53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaya
1.23
Sydney
1.89

Sydney creates 54% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kaya
1.25
Sydney
2.20

allows per match

Kaya
1.58
Sydney
1.20

finishing

Kaya+0.00on par
Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaya ↓

Sydney →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kaya or draw
47%
Kaya or Sydney
77%
Draw or Sydney
75%

Winning margin

Kaya wins by 2+
10%
Sydney wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Kaya 1+ goals
71%
Kaya 2+ goals
35%
Kaya 3+ goals
13%
Sydney 1+ goals
85%
Sydney 2+ goals
56%
Sydney 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Kaya (draw refunded)
32%
Sydney (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaya at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Sydney away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaya attack 1.25 + Sydney defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sydney attack 2.20 + Kaya defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kaya scores more
25%
level
23%
Sydney scores more
53%

Sydney at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaya vs Sydney

Sydney beat Kaya 4-1 in AFC Cup on October 3, 2024.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.