Kaya 2–0 PFF Developmental Club: Result & Stats

Kaya

FT

2 – 0

PFF Developmental Club

1/19/2025

PFL · Round 4UP Diliman Football Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kaya86%

×Draw9%

PFF Developmental Club4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KayaExpected goals in this matchPFF Developmental Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.19

0.59

Kaya

3.19

PFF Developmental Club

0.59

Kaya creates 441% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 10 away

3.48

creates per match

0.40

0.78

allows per match

2.90

creates per match

Kaya

3.48

PFF Developmental Club

0.40

allows per match

Kaya

0.78

PFF Developmental Club

2.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaya+0.00on par

PFF Developmental Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaya ↓

PFF Developmental Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–18%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Kaya or draw

96%

Kaya or PFF Developmental Club

91%

Draw or PFF Developmental Club

14%

Winning margin

Kaya wins by 2+

69%

PFF Developmental Club wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Kaya 1+ goals

96%

Kaya 2+ goals

82%

Kaya 3+ goals

60%

PFF Developmental Club 1+ goals

45%

PFF Developmental Club 2+ goals

12%

PFF Developmental Club 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Kaya (draw refunded)

95%

PFF Developmental Club (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaya at home — creates 3.48, concedes 0.78 · 46 matches

PFF Developmental Club away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaya attack 3.48 + PFF Developmental Club defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 3.19

PFF Developmental Club attack 0.40 + Kaya defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Kaya scores more

86%

level

9%

PFF Developmental Club scores more

4%

Kaya at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Kaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff