Kaya 1–3 Incheon United: Result & Stats

Kaya

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Incheon United

12/13/2023

AFC Champions League · Group G - 6Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kaya15%

×Draw16%

Incheon United68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KayaExpected goals in this matchIncheon United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

2.75

Kaya

1.25

Incheon United

2.75

Incheon United creates 120% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

0.50

creates per match

2.67

2.83

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Kaya

0.50

Incheon United

2.67

allows per match

Kaya

2.83

Incheon United

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaya+0.00on par

Incheon United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaya ↓

Incheon United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Kaya or draw

32%

Kaya or Incheon United

84%

Draw or Incheon United

85%

Winning margin

Kaya wins by 2+

6%

Incheon United wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Kaya 1+ goals

71%

Kaya 2+ goals

36%

Kaya 3+ goals

13%

Incheon United 1+ goals

93%

Incheon United 2+ goals

75%

Incheon United 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Kaya (draw refunded)

18%

Incheon United (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaya at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Incheon United away — creates 2.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaya attack 0.50 + Incheon United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Incheon United attack 2.67 + Kaya defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Kaya scores more

15%

level

16%

Incheon United scores more

68%

Incheon United at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Incheon United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff