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Kaya vs Home United — AFC Cup 2018

Kaya
Kaya
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Home United
Home United
3/13/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Panaad Stadium (Bacolod City)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Kaya38%
×Draw24%
Home United38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaya
1.59
Home United
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

creates per match

Kaya
1.25
Home United
1.61

allows per match

Kaya
1.58
Home United
1.94

finishing

Kaya+0.00on par
Home United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaya ↓

Home United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kaya or draw
62%
Kaya or Home United
76%
Draw or Home United
62%

Winning margin

Kaya wins by 2+
19%
Home United wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kaya 1+ goals
80%
Kaya 2+ goals
47%
Kaya 3+ goals
21%
Home United 1+ goals
80%
Home United 2+ goals
47%
Home United 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kaya (draw refunded)
50%
Home United (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaya at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Home United away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaya attack 1.25 + Home United defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.59

Home United attack 1.61 + Kaya defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kaya scores more
38%
level
24%
Home United scores more
38%

Kaya at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaya vs Home United

Kaya beat Home United 5-0 in AFC Cup on March 13, 2019.

The match was played at Panaad Stadium (Bacolod City).