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Kaya vs Bali United — AFC Cup 2018

Kaya
Kaya
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bali United
Bali United
6/30/2022AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Stadion Kapten I Wayan Dipta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kaya46%
×Draw22%
Bali United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaya
1.88
Bali United
1.54

Kaya creates 22% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Kaya
1.25
Bali United
1.50

allows per match

Kaya
1.58
Bali United
2.50

finishing

Kaya+0.00on par
Bali United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaya ↓

Bali United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kaya or draw
68%
Kaya or Bali United
78%
Draw or Bali United
54%

Winning margin

Kaya wins by 2+
25%
Bali United wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kaya 1+ goals
85%
Kaya 2+ goals
56%
Kaya 3+ goals
29%
Bali United 1+ goals
79%
Bali United 2+ goals
45%
Bali United 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kaya (draw refunded)
59%
Bali United (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaya at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Bali United away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaya attack 1.25 + Bali United defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Bali United attack 1.50 + Kaya defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kaya scores more
46%
level
22%
Bali United scores more
32%

Kaya at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Kaya 0–1 Bali United

Bali United beat Kaya 1-0 in AFC Cup on June 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kapten I Wayan Dipta in Gianyar.