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Kaya vs Azkals — PFL 2020

Kaya
Kaya
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Azkals
Azkals
4/15/2023PFLPFL · Round 7Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kaya61%
×Draw20%
Azkals20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaya
2.29
Azkals
1.24

Kaya creates 85% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 10 away

creates per match

Kaya
3.48
Azkals
1.70

allows per match

Kaya
0.78
Azkals
1.10

finishing

Kaya+0.00on par
Azkals+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaya ↓

Azkals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kaya or draw
80%
Kaya or Azkals
80%
Draw or Azkals
39%

Winning margin

Kaya wins by 2+
38%
Azkals wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kaya 1+ goals
90%
Kaya 2+ goals
66%
Kaya 3+ goals
40%
Azkals 1+ goals
71%
Azkals 2+ goals
35%
Azkals 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kaya (draw refunded)
75%
Azkals (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaya at home — creates 3.48, concedes 0.78 · 46 matches

Azkals away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaya attack 3.48 + Azkals defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 2.29

Azkals attack 1.70 + Kaya defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kaya scores more
61%
level
20%
Azkals scores more
20%

Kaya at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PFL: Kaya 3–2 Azkals

Kaya beat Azkals 3-2 in PFL on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.