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Kawkab Marrakech vs USM Oujda — Botola 2 2025

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
USM Oujda
USM Oujda
4/1/2022Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 23Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech50%
×Draw28%
USM Oujda22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
1.39
USM Oujda
0.83

Kawkab Marrakech creates 67% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 75 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.41
USM Oujda
0.71

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
0.95
USM Oujda
1.37

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
USM Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

USM Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
78%
Kawkab Marrakech or USM Oujda
72%
Draw or USM Oujda
50%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
24%
USM Oujda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
75%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
40%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
16%
USM Oujda 1+ goals
56%
USM Oujda 2+ goals
20%
USM Oujda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
69%
USM Oujda (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

USM Oujda away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.37 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.41 + USM Oujda defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

USM Oujda attack 0.71 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
50%
level
28%
USM Oujda scores more
22%

Kawkab Marrakech at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kawkab Marrakech vs USM Oujda

Kawkab Marrakech beat USM Oujda 3-2 in Botola 2 on April 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech in Marrakech.