Kawkab Marrakech 2–0 Rapide Oued ZEM

Kawkab Marrakech

FT

2 – 0

Rapide Oued ZEM

2/9/2019

Botola Pro · Round 17Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech46%

×Draw29%

Rapide Oued ZEM25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kawkab MarrakechExpected goals in this matchRapide Oued ZEM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.86

Kawkab Marrakech

1.27

Rapide Oued ZEM

0.86

Kawkab Marrakech creates 48% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 60 away

1.32

creates per match

0.72

1.00

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech

1.32

Rapide Oued ZEM

0.72

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech

1.00

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw

75%

Kawkab Marrakech or Rapide Oued ZEM

71%

Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM

54%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+

21%

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals

72%

Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals

36%

Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals

14%

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals

58%

Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals

21%

Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)

65%

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.23 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.32 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.72 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more

46%

level

29%

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more

25%

Kawkab Marrakech at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff