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Kawkab Marrakech vs Racing de Casablanca — Cup 2020

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Racing de Casablanca
Racing de Casablanca
Y. El Bahraoui 82'
I. El Omari 31'
3/26/2025CupCup · 16th FinalsStade Sidi-Youssef-Ben-Ali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech44%
×Draw27%
Racing de Casablanca29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
1.40
Racing de Casablanca
1.07

Kawkab Marrakech creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.80
Racing de Casablanca
0.75

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.40
Racing de Casablanca
1.00

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
Racing de Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

Racing de Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
71%
Kawkab Marrakech or Racing de Casablanca
73%
Draw or Racing de Casablanca
56%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
21%
Racing de Casablanca wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
75%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
41%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
17%
Racing de Casablanca 1+ goals
66%
Racing de Casablanca 2+ goals
29%
Racing de Casablanca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
61%
Racing de Casablanca (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Racing de Casablanca away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.80 + Racing de Casablanca defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Racing de Casablanca attack 0.75 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
44%
level
27%
Racing de Casablanca scores more
29%

Kawkab Marrakech at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
I. El Omari
82'
Y. El Bahraoui

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Kawkab Marrakech 2–0 Racing de Casablanca

Kawkab Marrakech beat Racing de Casablanca 2-0 in Cup on March 26, 2025.

Goals: I. El Omari (31'), Y. El Bahraoui (82').

The match was played at Stade Sidi-Youssef-Ben-Ali in Marrakech.