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Kawkab Marrakech vs Olympique Safi — Botola Pro 2025

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
1 – 2
Olympique Safi
Olympique Safi
1/13/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 14Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech42%
×Draw29%
Olympique Safi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
1.25
Olympique Safi
0.98

Kawkab Marrakech creates 28% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 116 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.25
Olympique Safi
0.93

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.03
Olympique Safi
1.25

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

Olympique Safi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
71%
Kawkab Marrakech or Olympique Safi
71%
Draw or Olympique Safi
58%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
19%
Olympique Safi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
71%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
36%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
13%
Olympique Safi 1+ goals
62%
Olympique Safi 2+ goals
26%
Olympique Safi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
59%
Olympique Safi (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Olympique Safi away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.25 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.25 + Olympique Safi defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Olympique Safi attack 0.93 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
42%
level
29%
Olympique Safi scores more
29%

Kawkab Marrakech at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
Zakaria Lahlali
79'
Yahia Attiyat Allah
81'
Mehdi Zaya
87'
Ahmed Al Mahri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kawkab Marrakech vs Olympique Safi

Olympique Safi beat Kawkab Marrakech 2-1 in Botola Pro on January 13, 2019.

Goals: Zakaria Lahlali (55'), Yahia Attiyat Allah (79'), Ahmed Al Mahri (87').

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech).