Kawkab Marrakech 0–1 Olympique Safi: Result & Stats

Kawkab Marrakech

FT

0 – 1

Olympique Safi

12/4/2016

Botola Pro · Round 11Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech42%

×Draw29%

Olympique Safi29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kawkab MarrakechExpected goals in this matchOlympique Safi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.97

Kawkab Marrakech

1.23

Olympique Safi

0.97

Kawkab Marrakech creates 27% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 116 away

1.21

creates per match

0.93

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech

1.21

Olympique Safi

0.93

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech

1.00

Olympique Safi

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

Olympique Safi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw

71%

Kawkab Marrakech or Olympique Safi

71%

Draw or Olympique Safi

58%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+

19%

Olympique Safi wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals

71%

Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals

35%

Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals

13%

Olympique Safi 1+ goals

62%

Olympique Safi 2+ goals

25%

Olympique Safi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)

59%

Olympique Safi (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Olympique Safi away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.25 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.21 + Olympique Safi defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Olympique Safi attack 0.93 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more

42%

level

29%

Olympique Safi scores more

29%

Kawkab Marrakech at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff