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Kawkab Marrakech vs Olympique Khouribga — Botola Pro 2025

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
0 – 1
Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
4/19/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 25Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech46%
×Draw28%
Olympique Khouribga26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
1.33
Olympique Khouribga
0.91

Kawkab Marrakech creates 46% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 60 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.32
Olympique Khouribga
0.82

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.00
Olympique Khouribga
1.33

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

Olympique Khouribga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
74%
Kawkab Marrakech or Olympique Khouribga
72%
Draw or Olympique Khouribga
54%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
22%
Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
74%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
38%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
15%
Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
60%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
23%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
64%
Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.32 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Olympique Khouribga attack 0.82 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
46%
level
28%
Olympique Khouribga scores more
26%

Kawkab Marrakech at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kawkab Marrakech vs Olympique Khouribga

Olympique Khouribga beat Kawkab Marrakech 1-0 in Botola Pro on April 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech).