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Kawkab Marrakech vs KAC Kenitra — Botola 2 2025

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
4 – 1
KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
Unknown 88', 74', 70', 66'
Unknown 90+1'
7/2/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 29Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech46%
×Draw28%
KAC Kenitra26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
1.33
KAC Kenitra
0.94

Kawkab Marrakech creates 41% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 73 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.41
KAC Kenitra
0.93

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
0.95
KAC Kenitra
1.26

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
KAC Kenitra+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

KAC Kenitra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
74%
Kawkab Marrakech or KAC Kenitra
72%
Draw or KAC Kenitra
54%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
21%
KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
74%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
38%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
15%
KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
61%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
24%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
63%
KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

KAC Kenitra away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.41 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

KAC Kenitra attack 0.93 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
46%
level
28%
KAC Kenitra scores more
26%

Kawkab Marrakech at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'
70'
74'
88'
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Kawkab Marrakech 4–1 KAC Kenitra

Kawkab Marrakech beat KAC Kenitra 4-1 in Botola 2 on July 2, 2021.

Goals: ? (66', 70', 74', 88', 90+1').

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech in Marrakech.