Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kawkab Marrakech vs Ittifaq Marrakech — Botola 2 2025

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ittifaq Marrakech
Ittifaq Marrakech
5/31/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 28Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech49%
×Draw29%
Ittifaq Marrakech22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
1.30
Ittifaq Marrakech
0.76

Kawkab Marrakech creates 71% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.41
Ittifaq Marrakech
0.57

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
0.95
Ittifaq Marrakech
1.20

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
Ittifaq Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

Ittifaq Marrakech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
78%
Kawkab Marrakech or Ittifaq Marrakech
71%
Draw or Ittifaq Marrakech
51%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
23%
Ittifaq Marrakech wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
73%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
37%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
14%
Ittifaq Marrakech 1+ goals
53%
Ittifaq Marrakech 2+ goals
18%
Ittifaq Marrakech 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
69%
Ittifaq Marrakech (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

Ittifaq Marrakech away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.41 + Ittifaq Marrakech defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ittifaq Marrakech attack 0.57 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
49%
level
29%
Ittifaq Marrakech scores more
22%

Kawkab Marrakech at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kawkab Marrakech vs Ittifaq Marrakech

Kawkab Marrakech beat Ittifaq Marrakech 3-0 in Botola 2 on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech in Marrakech.