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Kawkab Marrakech vs FUS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
1 – 1
FUS Rabat
FUS Rabat
8/27/2018Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 1Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech37%
×Draw29%
FUS Rabat33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
1.14
FUS Rabat
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 119 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.25
FUS Rabat
1.09

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.03
FUS Rabat
1.02

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

FUS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
67%
Kawkab Marrakech or FUS Rabat
71%
Draw or FUS Rabat
63%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
15%
FUS Rabat wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
68%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
32%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
11%
FUS Rabat 1+ goals
65%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
29%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
53%
FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.25 + FUS Rabat defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

FUS Rabat attack 1.09 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
37%
level
29%
FUS Rabat scores more
33%

Kawkab Marrakech at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Kawkab Marrakech 1–1 FUS Rabat

Kawkab Marrakech and FUS Rabat drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on August 27, 2018.

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech).