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Kawkab Marrakech vs El Massira — Botola 2 2025

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
El Massira
El Massira
S. Al Salamyh 59'
Unknown 45+4'
9/29/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 1Stade Ahmed Choukri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech48%
×Draw28%
El Massira24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
1.34
El Massira
0.87

Kawkab Marrakech creates 54% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 90 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.41
El Massira
0.79

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
0.95
El Massira
1.28

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
El Massira+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

El Massira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
76%
Kawkab Marrakech or El Massira
72%
Draw or El Massira
52%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
23%
El Massira wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
74%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
39%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
15%
El Massira 1+ goals
58%
El Massira 2+ goals
22%
El Massira 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
66%
El Massira (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

El Massira away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.28 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.41 + El Massira defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34

El Massira attack 0.79 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
48%
level
28%
El Massira scores more
24%

Kawkab Marrakech at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+4'
59'
S. Al Salamyh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kawkab Marrakech vs El Massira

Kawkab Marrakech and El Massira drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on September 29, 2024.

Goals: ? (45+4'), S. Al Salamyh (59').

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Choukri in Zemamra.