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Kawkab Marrakech vs AS Salé — Botola 2 2025

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
1 – 1
AS Salé
AS Salé
12/9/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 2Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech49%
×Draw27%
AS Salé24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
1.46
AS Salé
0.94

Kawkab Marrakech creates 55% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 90 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.41
AS Salé
0.92

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
0.95
AS Salé
1.50

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
AS Salé+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

AS Salé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
76%
Kawkab Marrakech or AS Salé
73%
Draw or AS Salé
51%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
24%
AS Salé wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
77%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
43%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
18%
AS Salé 1+ goals
61%
AS Salé 2+ goals
24%
AS Salé 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
67%
AS Salé (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

AS Salé away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.50 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.41 + AS Salé defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

AS Salé attack 0.92 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
49%
level
27%
AS Salé scores more
24%

Kawkab Marrakech at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kawkab Marrakech vs AS Salé

Kawkab Marrakech and AS Salé drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on December 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech in Marrakech.