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AS Salé vs Kawkab Marrakech — Botola 2 2025

AS Salé
AS Salé
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
12/24/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 14Stade Boubker Ammar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

AS Salé37%
×Draw31%
Kawkab Marrakech32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Salé
1.05
Kawkab Marrakech
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 75 away

creates per match

AS Salé
1.11
Kawkab Marrakech
0.79

allows per match

AS Salé
1.12
Kawkab Marrakech
0.99

finishing

AS Salé+0.00on par
Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Salé ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AS Salé or draw
68%
AS Salé or Kawkab Marrakech
69%
Draw or Kawkab Marrakech
63%

Winning margin

AS Salé wins by 2+
15%
Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AS Salé 1+ goals
65%
AS Salé 2+ goals
28%
AS Salé 3+ goals
9%
Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
62%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
25%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AS Salé (draw refunded)
53%
Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Salé at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Salé attack 1.11 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.05

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.79 + AS Salé defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

AS Salé scores more
37%
level
31%
Kawkab Marrakech scores more
32%

AS Salé at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AS Salé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: AS Salé 1–1 Kawkab Marrakech

AS Salé and Kawkab Marrakech drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on December 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Boubker Ammar in Salé.