Kawasaki Frontale 2–1 Yokohama FC: Result & Stats

Kawasaki Frontale

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Yokohama FC

5/14/2025

J1 League · Round 14Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Kawasaki Frontale60%

×Draw22%

Yokohama FC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kawasaki FrontaleExpected goals in this matchYokohama FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.96

Kawasaki Frontale

1.92

Yokohama FC

0.96

Kawasaki Frontale creates 100% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 72 away

1.99

creates per match

0.78

1.14

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Kawasaki Frontale

1.99

Yokohama FC

0.78

allows per match

Kawasaki Frontale

1.14

Yokohama FC

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawasaki Frontale ↓

Yokohama FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kawasaki Frontale or draw

82%

Kawasaki Frontale or Yokohama FC

78%

Draw or Yokohama FC

40%

Winning margin

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

35%

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

85%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

57%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

30%

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

62%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

25%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

76%

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawasaki Frontale at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.14 · 150 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.99 + Yokohama FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.92

Yokohama FC attack 0.78 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

60%

level

22%

Yokohama FC scores more

18%

Kawasaki Frontale at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff