Kawasaki Frontale 1–3 Yokohama F. Marinos

Kawasaki Frontale

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Yokohama F. Marinos

Erison 89'

S. Hatanaka 79'

T. Nishimura 60'

Anderson Lopes 58' (pen)

8/17/2024

J1 League · Round 27Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Kawasaki Frontale42%

×Draw25%

Yokohama F. Marinos33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kawasaki FrontaleExpected goals in this matchYokohama F. Marinos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.35

Kawasaki Frontale

1.56

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.35

Kawasaki Frontale creates 16% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

1.69

creates per match

1.26

1.44

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Kawasaki Frontale

1.69

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.26

allows per match

Kawasaki Frontale

1.44

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.44

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Kawasaki Frontale+0.31scores more

Yokohama F. Marinos+0.24scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawasaki Frontale ↓

Yokohama F. Marinos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kawasaki Frontale or draw

67%

Kawasaki Frontale or Yokohama F. Marinos

75%

Draw or Yokohama F. Marinos

58%

Winning margin

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

21%

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

79%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

46%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

21%

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals

74%

Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals

39%

Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

56%

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawasaki Frontale at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.44 · 29 matches

Yokohama F. Marinos away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.44 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.69 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.56

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.26 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

42%

level

25%

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more

33%

Kawasaki Frontale at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

W. Popp

Yokohama F. Marinos · G

8.2

Match Events

58'

Anderson LopesPenalty

60'

T. Nishimura

63'

Kota Takai

64'

R. Kato← K. Nagato

64'

J. Amano← T. Nishimura

71'

D. Tono← Marcinho

71'

Y. Yamamoto← S. van Wermeskerken

71'

S. Kurumaya← S. Miura

77'

R. Miyaichi← Yan Matheus

78'

Y. Kobayashi← R. Oshima

78'

Erison← A. Ienaga

78'

K. Aziangbe← K. Matsubara

79'

S. Hatanaka↳ J. Amano

89'

Erison

90+2'

Élber

90+4'

K. Inoue← Élber

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KawasakiYokohama

Overview

48%Possession52%

21Total Shots13

3.26Expected Goals (xG)1.74

12Corners5

10Fouls9

Shots

21Total Shots13

7On Target4

10Off Target6

4Blocked3

17Inside Box8

4Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

395Total Passes446

357Accurate Passes399

90%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0