Kawasaki Frontale 2–0 Tokushima Vortis

Kawasaki Frontale

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Tokushima Vortis

Leandro Damião 42', 12'

3/10/2021

J1 League · Round 3Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kawasaki Frontale58%

×Draw23%

Tokushima Vortis19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kawasaki FrontaleExpected goals in this matchTokushima Vortis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.95

Kawasaki Frontale

1.84

Tokushima Vortis

0.95

Kawasaki Frontale creates 94% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 22 away

2.01

creates per match

0.77

1.13

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Kawasaki Frontale

2.01

Tokushima Vortis

0.77

allows per match

Kawasaki Frontale

1.13

Tokushima Vortis

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawasaki Frontale ↓

Tokushima Vortis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kawasaki Frontale or draw

81%

Kawasaki Frontale or Tokushima Vortis

77%

Draw or Tokushima Vortis

42%

Winning margin

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

34%

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

84%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

55%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

28%

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

61%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

25%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

75%

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawasaki Frontale at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.13 · 151 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.01 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.84

Tokushima Vortis attack 0.77 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

58%

level

23%

Tokushima Vortis scores more

19%

Kawasaki Frontale at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Leandro Damião

Kawasaki Frontale · F

9.0

Match Events

12'

Leandro Damião↳ K. Mitoma

42'

Leandro Damião

64'

K. Tachibanada← Y. Wakizaka

64'

K. Tsukagawa← João Schmidt

64'

Y. Kobayashi← Leandro Damião

64'

A. Kawata← Y. Kakita

72'

C. Kawakami← S. Fujiwara

72'

Diego← N. Fuke

80'

T. Hasegawa← K. Mitoma

80'

D. Tono← A. Ienaga

83'

Y. Konishi← J. Fujita

83'

S. Fujita← T. Kishimoto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KawasakiTokushima

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots2

4Corners4

9Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots2

6On Target0

9Off Target1

3Blocked1

12Inside Box2

6Outside Box0

Passing

53%Possession47%

614Total Passes537

539Accurate Passes451

88%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Offsides1