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Kawasaki Frontale vs Sydney FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sydney FC
Sydney FC
3/13/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Todoroki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Kawasaki Frontale58%
×Draw22%
Sydney FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawasaki Frontale
1.93
Sydney FC
1.02

Kawasaki Frontale creates 89% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

creates per match

Kawasaki Frontale
2.43
Sydney FC
1.08

allows per match

Kawasaki Frontale
0.95
Sydney FC
1.42

finishing

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par
Sydney FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawasaki Frontale ↓

Sydney FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kawasaki Frontale or draw
80%
Kawasaki Frontale or Sydney FC
78%
Draw or Sydney FC
42%

Winning margin

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+
34%
Sydney FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals
85%
Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals
57%
Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals
30%
Sydney FC 1+ goals
64%
Sydney FC 2+ goals
27%
Sydney FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)
75%
Sydney FC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawasaki Frontale at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Sydney FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.43 + Sydney FC defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.93

Sydney FC attack 1.08 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kawasaki Frontale scores more
58%
level
22%
Sydney FC scores more
20%

Kawasaki Frontale at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Kawasaki Frontale 1–0 Sydney FC

Kawasaki Frontale beat Sydney FC 1-0 in AFC Champions League on March 13, 2019.

The match was played at Todoroki Stadium in Kawasaki.