Kawasaki Frontale 4–0 Shanghai Shenhua

Kawasaki Frontale

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shanghai Shenhua

3/12/2025

AFC Champions League · Round of 16Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kawasaki Frontale66%

×Draw20%

Shanghai Shenhua14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kawasaki FrontaleExpected goals in this matchShanghai Shenhua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.81

Kawasaki Frontale

2.05

Shanghai Shenhua

0.81

Kawasaki Frontale creates 153% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

2.43

creates per match

0.67

0.95

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Kawasaki Frontale

2.43

Shanghai Shenhua

0.67

allows per match

Kawasaki Frontale

0.95

Shanghai Shenhua

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawasaki Frontale ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kawasaki Frontale or draw

86%

Kawasaki Frontale or Shanghai Shenhua

80%

Draw or Shanghai Shenhua

34%

Winning margin

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

41%

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

87%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

61%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

33%

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

56%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

19%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

83%

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawasaki Frontale at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.43 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.05

Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.67 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

66%

level

20%

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

14%

Kawasaki Frontale at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff