Kawasaki Frontale 4–0 Shandong Luneng

Kawasaki Frontale

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Shandong Luneng

S. Yamada 90'

Jesiel 65'

Y. Yamamoto 41'

Marcinho 3'

12/4/2024

AFC Champions League · League Stage - 6Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kawasaki Frontale65%

×Draw18%

Shandong Luneng16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kawasaki FrontaleExpected goals in this matchShandong Luneng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.11

Kawasaki Frontale

2.38

Shandong Luneng

1.11

Kawasaki Frontale creates 114% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

2.43

creates per match

1.27

0.95

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Kawasaki Frontale

2.43

Shandong Luneng

1.27

allows per match

Kawasaki Frontale

0.95

Shandong Luneng

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawasaki Frontale ↓

Shandong Luneng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Kawasaki Frontale or draw

84%

Kawasaki Frontale or Shandong Luneng

82%

Draw or Shandong Luneng

35%

Winning margin

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

43%

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

91%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

68%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

42%

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

67%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

30%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

80%

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawasaki Frontale at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.43 + Shandong Luneng defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.38

Shandong Luneng attack 1.27 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

65%

level

18%

Shandong Luneng scores more

16%

Kawasaki Frontale at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

Y. Yamamoto

Kawasaki Frontale · M

8.3

Match Events

3'

20'

33'

41'

46'

Abudulam Abdurasul← V. Qazaishvili

49'

D. Tono← Y. Segawa

60'

Jesiel

65'

Jesiel↳ Y. Yamamoto

68'

K. Tachibanada← Y. Yamamoto

68'

A. Ienaga← Marcinho

68'

S. Yamada← Y. Kobayashi

80'

Yuanyi Li

81'

Tong Lei← Chen Pu

84'

S. Kanda← Erison

90'

S. Yamada↳ S. Kanda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KawasakiShandong

Overview

63%Possession37%

22Total Shots7

8Corners4

10Fouls14

Shots

22Total Shots7

7On Target4

6Off Target1

9Blocked2

13Inside Box3

9Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

463Total Passes278

403Accurate Passes214

87%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2