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Kawasaki Frontale vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
4/30/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6Tan Sri Dato' Hj Hassan Yunos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kawasaki Frontale68%
×Draw20%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawasaki Frontale
2.01
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0.71

Kawasaki Frontale creates 183% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kawasaki Frontale
2.43
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0.47

allows per match

Kawasaki Frontale
0.95
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.59

finishing

Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawasaki Frontale ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kawasaki Frontale or draw
88%
Kawasaki Frontale or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
80%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
32%

Winning margin

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+
42%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals
87%
Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals
59%
Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals
32%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
51%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
16%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)
85%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawasaki Frontale at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.43 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.01

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.47 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Kawasaki Frontale scores more
68%
level
20%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
12%

Kawasaki Frontale at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kawasaki Frontale 1 – 0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Kawasaki Frontale beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-0 in AFC Champions League on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Tan Sri Dato' Hj Hassan Yunos Stadium in Johor Bahru.