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Kaw Valley vs Flint City Bucks — USL League Two 2018

Kaw Valley
Kaw Valley
FT
2 – 4
Flint City Bucks
Flint City Bucks
7/21/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - FinalsDrake Stadium (Des Moines)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kaw Valley28%
×Draw21%
Flint City Bucks52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaw Valley
1.58
Flint City Bucks
2.21

Flint City Bucks creates 40% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 51 away

creates per match

Kaw Valley
2.08
Flint City Bucks
2.10

allows per match

Kaw Valley
2.31
Flint City Bucks
1.08

finishing

Kaw Valley+0.00on par
Flint City Bucks+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaw Valley ↓

Flint City Bucks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kaw Valley or draw
48%
Kaw Valley or Flint City Bucks
79%
Draw or Flint City Bucks
72%

Winning margin

Kaw Valley wins by 2+
13%
Flint City Bucks wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Kaw Valley 1+ goals
79%
Kaw Valley 2+ goals
47%
Kaw Valley 3+ goals
21%
Flint City Bucks 1+ goals
89%
Flint City Bucks 2+ goals
65%
Flint City Bucks 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Kaw Valley (draw refunded)
35%
Flint City Bucks (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaw Valley at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Flint City Bucks away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaw Valley attack 2.08 + Flint City Bucks defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.58

Flint City Bucks attack 2.10 + Kaw Valley defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kaw Valley scores more
28%
level
21%
Flint City Bucks scores more
52%

Flint City Bucks at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Flint City Bucks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Kaw Valley 2–4 Flint City Bucks

Flint City Bucks beat Kaw Valley 4-2 in USL League Two on July 21, 2019.

The match was played at Drake Stadium (Des Moines).