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Kaw Valley vs Chicago Fire II — USL League Two 2018

Kaw Valley
Kaw Valley
FT
1 – 7
Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II
6/19/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 30Rock Chalk Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kaw Valley25%
×Draw19%
Chicago Fire II56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaw Valley
1.66
Chicago Fire II
2.54

Chicago Fire II creates 53% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 21 away

creates per match

Kaw Valley
2.08
Chicago Fire II
2.76

allows per match

Kaw Valley
2.31
Chicago Fire II
1.24

finishing

Kaw Valley+0.00on par
Chicago Fire II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaw Valley ↓

Chicago Fire II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Kaw Valley or draw
44%
Kaw Valley or Chicago Fire II
81%
Draw or Chicago Fire II
75%

Winning margin

Kaw Valley wins by 2+
12%
Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Kaw Valley 1+ goals
81%
Kaw Valley 2+ goals
49%
Kaw Valley 3+ goals
23%
Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
92%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
72%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Kaw Valley (draw refunded)
31%
Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaw Valley at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Chicago Fire II away — creates 2.76, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaw Valley attack 2.08 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.66

Chicago Fire II attack 2.76 + Kaw Valley defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kaw Valley scores more
25%
level
19%
Chicago Fire II scores more
56%

Chicago Fire II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaw Valley vs Chicago Fire II

Chicago Fire II beat Kaw Valley 7-1 in USL League Two on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Rock Chalk Park in Lawrence, Kansas.