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Kaw Valley vs Chicago Dutch Lions — USL League Two 2018

Kaw Valley
Kaw Valley
CANC
21:30
Chicago Dutch Lions
Chicago Dutch Lions
7/10/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 68Mercy Victory Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kaw Valley59%
×Draw18%
Chicago Dutch Lions23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaw Valley
2.78
Chicago Dutch Lions
1.75

Kaw Valley creates 59% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kaw Valley
2.08
Chicago Dutch Lions
1.20

allows per match

Kaw Valley
2.31
Chicago Dutch Lions
3.47

finishing

Kaw Valley+0.00on par
Chicago Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaw Valley ↓

Chicago Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Kaw Valley or draw
77%
Kaw Valley or Chicago Dutch Lions
82%
Draw or Chicago Dutch Lions
41%

Winning margin

Kaw Valley wins by 2+
39%
Chicago Dutch Lions wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kaw Valley 1+ goals
94%
Kaw Valley 2+ goals
76%
Kaw Valley 3+ goals
51%
Chicago Dutch Lions 1+ goals
83%
Chicago Dutch Lions 2+ goals
52%
Chicago Dutch Lions 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kaw Valley (draw refunded)
71%
Chicago Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaw Valley at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Chicago Dutch Lions away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaw Valley attack 2.08 + Chicago Dutch Lions defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.78

Chicago Dutch Lions attack 1.20 + Kaw Valley defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kaw Valley scores more
59%
level
18%
Chicago Dutch Lions scores more
23%

Kaw Valley at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kaw Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kaw Valley face Chicago Dutch Lions (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Kaw Valley hosting Chicago Dutch Lions. Match starts July 10, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kaw Valley host Chicago Dutch Lions at Mercy Victory Field.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.