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Kauno Žalgiris vs Suduva Marijampole — A Lyga 2026

Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Preview
16:00
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
7/25/2026A LygaA Lyga · Round 24
Big match
45%
Kauno Žalgiris
model favours
45%26%30%

Suduva Marijampole are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris45%
×Draw26%
Suduva Marijampole30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kauno Žalgiris
1.50
Suduva Marijampole
1.18

Kauno Žalgiris creates 27% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 125 away

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris
1.75
Suduva Marijampole
1.40

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris
0.96
Suduva Marijampole
1.26

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par
Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris ↓

Suduva Marijampole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris or draw
70%
Kauno Žalgiris or Suduva Marijampole
74%
Draw or Suduva Marijampole
55%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+
22%
Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals
78%
Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals
44%
Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals
19%
Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals
69%
Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals
33%
Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)
60%
Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.96 · 126 matches

Suduva Marijampole away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris attack 1.75 + Suduva Marijampole defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.50

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.40 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kauno Žalgiris scores more
45%
level
26%
Suduva Marijampole scores more
30%

Kauno Žalgiris at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kauno Žalgiris are unbeaten in 8 straight
  • Suduva Marijampole score first in only 20% of matches
  • 72% of Kauno Žalgiris’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • When Kauno Žalgiris score first, they win 80% of the time
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (72% and 60% over 2.5)
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Kauno Žalgiris 1 vs Suduva Marijampole 3

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Žalgiris
DWWW
Marijampole
WDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kauno Žalgiris face Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)

A Lyga returns with Kauno Žalgiris hosting Suduva Marijampole. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.