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Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — A Lyga 2026

Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
5/17/2025A LygaA Lyga · Round 12S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris34%
×Draw26%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kauno Žalgiris
1.29
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.43

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 11% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 127 away

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris
1.73
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.87

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris
0.98
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.86

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par
FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris ↓

FK Zalgiris Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris or draw
60%
Kauno Žalgiris or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
74%
Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
66%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+
15%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals
72%
Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals
37%
Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals
14%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals
76%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals
42%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)
46%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.98 · 127 matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 1.87, concedes 0.86 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris attack 1.73 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.29

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 1.87 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kauno Žalgiris scores more
34%
level
26%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more
40%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kauno Žalgiris 3 – 0 FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Kauno Žalgiris beat FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3-0 in A Lyga on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas in Kaunas.