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FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris — Cup 2020

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
AET
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgirisadvanced
5/20/2025CupCup · Round of 16FK Žalgiris namų stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius31%
×Draw21%
Kauno Žalgiris48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.76
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20

Kauno Žalgiris creates 25% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
3.29
Kauno Žalgiris
3.69

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.71
Kauno Žalgiris
0.23

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par
Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Kauno Žalgiris →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw
52%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Kauno Žalgiris
79%
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris
69%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+
16%
Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals
83%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals
52%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals
26%
Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals
89%
Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals
64%
Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)
40%
Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 3.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Kauno Žalgiris away — creates 3.69, concedes 0.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 3.29 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 0.23 → ÷2 → 1.76

Kauno Žalgiris attack 3.69 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more
31%
level
21%
Kauno Žalgiris scores more
48%

Kauno Žalgiris at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2–2 Kauno Žalgiris

FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Kauno Žalgiris drew 2-2 in Cup on May 20, 2025.

The match was played at FK Žalgiris namų stadionas in Vilnius.