Kauno Žalgiris 0–2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Kauno Žalgiris

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

J. Tadic 85'

H. Vidémont 21'

9/12/2021

A Lyga · Round 26SM Tauras Stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris34%

×Draw25%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kauno ŽalgirisExpected goals in this matchFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.46

Kauno Žalgiris

1.30

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.46

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 12% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 133 away

1.76

creates per match

1.93

0.98

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris

1.76

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.93

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris

0.98

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris ↓

FK Zalgiris Vilnius →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris or draw

59%

Kauno Žalgiris or FK Zalgiris Vilnius

75%

Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius

66%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+

15%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals

73%

Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals

37%

Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals

14%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

77%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

43%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)

45%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.84 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris attack 1.76 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.30

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 1.93 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kauno Žalgiris scores more

34%

level

25%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

41%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

44'

48'

56'

63'

72'

J. Tadic← J. Sylvestr

76'

F. Kyeremeh← G. Jarusevičius

81'

M. Kuklys← T. Kiš

84'

D. Sesplaukis

85'

E. David← Y. Suwa

85'

87'

90+1'

90+3'

Kauno

FK

1

15

3

7

23

11

⚽

Vidémont

22

Verbickas

14

Uzėla

96

▼

Jarusevič

12

▼

Sylvestr

10

▼

22

87

8

93

90

15

77

4

24

19

6

▼

Suwa

Manager: R. Garastas

85'▲E. David←▼Y. Suwa

Kauno Žalgiris substitutes

11David13Putrius16Opeyemi18Sadauskas27Vinckus30Mickevičius80Kloniūnas

Manager: V. Cheburin

72'▲J. Tadic←▼J. Sylvestr

76'▲F. Kyeremeh←▼G. Jarusevičius

81'▲M. Kuklys←▼T. Kiš

FK Zalgiris Vilnius substitutes

27Tadic77Kyeremeh88Kuklys19Piliukaitis21Nikonovas25Duka13Mikoliūnas85Stankevičius

Match Recap: Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FK Zalgiris Vilnius beat Kauno Žalgiris 2-0 in A Lyga on September 12, 2021.

Goals: H. Vidémont (21'), J. Tadic (85').

The match was played at SM Tauras Stadionas in Kaunas.

Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius