Kauno Žalgiris 1–2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Kauno Žalgiris

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

S. Urbys 19'

L. Antal 73'

H. Vidémont 48'

11/4/2019

A Lyga · Championship Round - 2Nacionalinės futbolo akademijos stadionas (Kaunas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris33%

×Draw25%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius42%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kauno ŽalgirisExpected goals in this matchFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.50

Kauno Žalgiris

1.30

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.50

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 15% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 141 away

1.76

creates per match

2.02

0.98

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris

1.76

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.02

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris

0.98

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris ↓

FK Zalgiris Vilnius →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris or draw

58%

Kauno Žalgiris or FK Zalgiris Vilnius

75%

Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius

67%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+

14%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals

73%

Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals

37%

Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals

14%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

78%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

44%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)

44%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.98 · 125 matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 2.02, concedes 0.84 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris attack 1.76 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.30

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.02 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kauno Žalgiris scores more

33%

level

25%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

42%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

19'

48'

63'

70'

D. Galkevičius← P. Sirvys

72'

A. Cordoș← M. Tomić

73'

L. Antal

78'

D. Šešplaukis← S. Urbys

89'

R. Baravykas← T. Kiš

Kauno

FK

12

5

19

13

8

⚽

Antal

7

Pérez

9

⚽

Vidémont

33

▼

Šimkus

4

Vorobjova

16

▼

Tomić

10

▼

22

8

3

81

15

17

▼

77

4

13

99

16

▼

Otele

Manager: M. Čepas

11'▲S. Urbys←▼P. Otele

70'▲D. Galkevičius←▼P. Sirvys

78'▲D. Šešplaukis←▼S. Urbys

Kauno Žalgiris substitutes

21Urbys88Galkevičius19Šešplaukis7Anisas9Krušnauskas24Klimavičius31Vilkas

Manager: João Martins

63'▲Pau Morer←▼D. Šimkus

72'▲A. Cordoș←▼M. Tomić

89'▲R. Baravykas←▼T. Kiš

FK Zalgiris Vilnius substitutes

22Morer6Cordoș23Baravykas1Vitkauskas14Uzėla17Vareika96Jarusevičius

Match Recap: Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FK Zalgiris Vilnius beat Kauno Žalgiris 2-1 in A Lyga on November 4, 2019.

Goals: S. Urbys (19'), H. Vidémont (48'), L. Antal (73').

The match was played at Nacionalinės futbolo akademijos stadionas (Kaunas).

Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius