Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kauno Žalgiris vs BFC Daugavpils — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kauno Žalgirio FA maniežas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris66%
×Draw21%
BFC Daugavpils13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kauno Žalgiris
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
0.69

Kauno Žalgiris creates 172% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris
1.75
BFC Daugavpils
0.63

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris
0.75
BFC Daugavpils
2.00

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par
BFC Daugavpils+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris ↓

BFC Daugavpils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris or draw
87%
Kauno Žalgiris or BFC Daugavpils
79%
Draw or BFC Daugavpils
34%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+
40%
BFC Daugavpils wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals
85%
Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals
56%
Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals
29%
BFC Daugavpils 1+ goals
50%
BFC Daugavpils 2+ goals
15%
BFC Daugavpils 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)
83%
BFC Daugavpils (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

BFC Daugavpils away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris attack 1.75 + BFC Daugavpils defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

BFC Daugavpils attack 0.63 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Kauno Žalgiris scores more
66%
level
21%
BFC Daugavpils scores more
13%

Kauno Žalgiris at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Kauno Žalgiris 2–0 BFC Daugavpils

Kauno Žalgiris beat BFC Daugavpils 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Kauno Žalgirio FA maniežas in Kaunas.