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Kauno Žalgiris II vs Neptūną Klaipėda — 1 Lyga 2026

Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
11/4/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 29VDU Valdo Adamkaus stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris II28%
×Draw22%
Neptūną Klaipėda50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.40
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.95

Neptūną Klaipėda creates 39% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 79 away

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.05

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.85
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.47

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris II+0.00on par
Neptūną Klaipėda+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris II ↓

Neptūną Klaipėda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris II or draw
50%
Kauno Žalgiris II or Neptūną Klaipėda
78%
Draw or Neptūną Klaipėda
72%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris II wins by 2+
12%
Neptūną Klaipėda wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris II 1+ goals
75%
Kauno Žalgiris II 2+ goals
41%
Kauno Žalgiris II 3+ goals
17%
Neptūną Klaipėda 1+ goals
86%
Neptūną Klaipėda 2+ goals
58%
Neptūną Klaipėda 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
36%
Neptūną Klaipėda (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.85 · 73 matches

Neptūną Klaipėda away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.47 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris II attack 1.33 + Neptūną Klaipėda defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Neptūną Klaipėda attack 2.05 + Kauno Žalgiris II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kauno Žalgiris II scores more
28%
level
22%
Neptūną Klaipėda scores more
50%

Neptūną Klaipėda at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Neptūną Klaipėda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Kauno Žalgiris II 5–1 Neptūną Klaipėda

Kauno Žalgiris II beat Neptūną Klaipėda 5-1 in 1 Lyga on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at VDU Valdo Adamkaus stadionas in Ringaudai.