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Kauno Žalgiris II vs Jonava — 1 Lyga 2026

Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
Preview
16:00
Jonava
Jonava
8/14/20261 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 20
Big match
42%
Jonava
model favours
34%24%42%

Jonava score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris II34%
×Draw24%
Jonava42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.40
Jonava
1.58

Jonava creates 13% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 72 away

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.31
Jonava
1.32

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.85
Jonava
1.49

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris II+0.00on par
Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris II ↓

Jonava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris II or draw
58%
Kauno Žalgiris II or Jonava
76%
Draw or Jonava
66%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris II wins by 2+
15%
Jonava wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris II 1+ goals
75%
Kauno Žalgiris II 2+ goals
41%
Kauno Žalgiris II 3+ goals
17%
Jonava 1+ goals
79%
Jonava 2+ goals
47%
Jonava 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
45%
Jonava (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.85 · 74 matches

Jonava away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris II attack 1.31 + Jonava defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.40

Jonava attack 1.32 + Kauno Žalgiris II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kauno Žalgiris II scores more
34%
level
24%
Jonava scores more
42%

Jonava at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kauno Žalgiris II score first in only 27% of matches
  • 67% of Jonava’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
LLLDL
Jonava
WLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kauno Žalgiris II vs Jonava — Match Preview

Kauno Žalgiris II face Jonava on August 14, 2026 in this 1 Lyga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.